Blain's Morning Porridge - Independence Day! And compare UK and France..

Blain’s Morning Porridge – July 4th 2017

“And the rocket’s red glare, the bombs bursting in the air, gave proof through the night…”

I love July 4th.

It’s the day we celebrate getting shot of these pesky, whiny, tax-dodging colonists we despatched to the New World all these years ago. Always complaining about something, and what they’ve done to the English language is just despicable… I do think telling them to reproduce and travel far was possibly the best thing King George ever did.

Subsequent history shows the wisdom of our decision. The British Empire now spans the entirety of this island perched at the unfashionable end of a dismal continent that doesn’t like us or our cuisine, while the Americans are cursed with being a global superpower.

Hah! that’ll teach them…

And today it gets better and better. The Shermans will take a whole day off work (no doubt mourning their loss of royalty) – demonstrating just how feckless and lazy they really are. The upside is we won’t have to listen to them for a whole 24 hours, although their day-glow orange president will inevitably tweet something profoundly stupid at some point during the day..

Now, what is there to say about markets:

I’m reliably informed stocks have bottomed and we’re on the upswing. Excellent.. for the next few days till the charts say otherwise…

If you want proof that markets are all about Politics and confidence compare and contrast the UK and France.

As we’re only too aware here in Mint Towers at the cheap end of Canary Wharf, the UK has become something of a political joke and embarrassment. Imagine if Theresa May came round to tea.. what would you do? Pretend you weren’t in? What would you talk about? It wouldn’t be prudent to ask which of her colleagues might step-in, because the whole pack have made themselves broadly unelectable.. (Except that nice chap Hammond, but he’s had an even more effective personality bypass than May.) Heroes to Zeros in a single night. Consumer and Business confidence are suffering accordingly – withness UK PMI tumbling a full five points lower than Germany y’day.

What’s the alternative.. even my kids admit they only voted for Corbyn as a protest… No one ever expects him to actually govern.. heaven forbid! No one expects the Spanish Inquisition…

A few months ago the UK was confidently approaching BREXIT: strong, stable, certain and secure in the belief our new found economic and political freedom meant more jobs, more pay and lots of jam tomorrow for everyone. What went wrong? Now we’re mired with a desperate government nakedly trying to buy public sector votes. Hey, buddy.. its not just nurses, firemen and soldiers that ain’t had pay rises – neither has anyone else according to the latest UK data!

Yet France seems in throes of a new self-discovery. The Macron effect is really having an effect. He’s making all the right noises, talking about actually making the country work by dealing with inefficiencies in government and labour reform.

By Jove! It might just be working.

I’ve been reading a slew of reports predicting further upside. France is the current favourite among economists arguing that rising incomes, tumbling unemployment is causing Frenchmen to feel increasingly confident about opening their wallets and spending again.

Of course, it’s not without risk – what could possibly derail the French recovery?

Full service resumes on Porridge tomorrow..

Fastnet Charity: http://www.sail4cancer.org/fastnet-2017-bill-blain

Bill Blain