Blain's Morning Porridge - June 28th 2019: World Cup Woes - will they get worse for Germany? Up

Blain’s Morning Porridge – June 28th 2018

“Till that, too, fades away in its turn, and the dreamer bitterly accepts the hard, cold waking and all its penalties..”

The Morning Porridge is unrestricted market commentary freely available to all investors on an unsolicited basis. It is not investment research.

Really not too much to say on markets this morning – although Italy’s bond funding today might get… “interesting”. Instead, I’m feeling sorry for my German chums this morning.

Ouch.

Just goes to show that a booming economy, full employment, rising wealth, solid economic, manufacturing and property indicators, a strong industrial base, and looking great when the rest of Europe is struggling, doesn’t generate football success. The German economy might get top marks, but that counts for nothing this morning.. Everything is about football – apparently.

Failure on such a scale must be punished! It can’t go unanswered. Might Germany’s exit from Russia just be the first pebble in a more terrible landslide? Stranger things have occurred: in 1969 Honduras and El Salvador actually went to wall over qualification for the 1970 World Cup. UK Premier Harold Wilson is said to have won the 1966 Election after Englerland won the cup, and was turfed out of Downing Street 4 days after Germany thumped Engerland in the return match in Mexico 1970.

The “Football” experts at the major investment banks who collectively used complex algos to confidently show how Germany couldn’t possibly loose are eating humble sausage this morning. (I’m actually thinking of a buy the dip moment if German stocks collapse in a fit of Schadenfruede..)

Perhaps Football is more complex than we think.. Why is it “poor, struggling nations, with a desperate desire for recognition and success” from the economic quagmires of Latin America, (and once Southern Europe), do so well? (There might be something in that? Why is Italy flat-lining on all fronts?) Does Germany lack the inspirational spark of national pride and expectations that makes small nations so entertaining?

Or, is Germany’s defeat part of a wider malaise? Exhaustion with “foot”ing the bill (see what I did there) for the European experiment? The end of the Merkel and Loew (the German manager) era? The lacklustre domestic banking system? Is there a complex German word for it? Wirtschaftlicherchopfung? (Which I just made up, but might mean economic exhaustion…) Hubris?

How long before I’m writing something similar about my hosts here in Engerland? (Oh, next week…)

Or, did Germany just get beaten in a game of football last night?

As Europe’s leadership meets in Brussels tonight. Although the headlines are all about “Unity?” – you can sense that exhaustion and the sticky realisation of unsolvability. Front and centre will be the perilous issues of refugees and immigration. Although there are rumours Greece is prepared to accept more refugees in return for German Geld, there simply aren’t wider workable proposals the front line nations can politically accept. Germany is trying to pretend its not an issue, while Italy are rubbing immigration into the festering sore of the Merkel administration.

Is there any point to progressing tonight’s meeting to a unified trans-Atlantic trade response? Leave it to the Brussels Eurocracy? If you want to deal with Yoorp, who do you call? As for Theresa May raising Brexit? Small hope – but great note y’day about how its not the UK that’s unprepared, but Europe!

Elsewhere, yesterday morning Trump reined back the trade noise and markets stopped tumbling. Today, markets are opening with an eye on oil.

Nothing is quite as pleasant as pontificating about stuff I know absolutely nothing about… and top of the list of things I really just don’t care about is Football.. but it seems to have a place in the grander scheme of things..

Finally, just to remain readers – if you haven’t yet seen our 5-yr 7% ORB bonds issued by Monaco Resources – do let me know.

Out of time and back to the day job..

Bill Blain