Blain's Morning Porridge - Unpleasantness with Spain and Democracy....
Blain’s Morning Porridge – April 3rd 2017
“Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel..”
What a cracking weekend, and here’s a picture of how good it was on my Dinghy on Sunday!
Yet, I'm sure I'm not the only person surprised to discover this week's highlight will be all-out war with Spain.
Apparently… depending on what you read.
War with Spain might be a tad awkward. Not least is the fact Maria, the marvellous young lady who runs our coffee bar, is Spanish. My chum Rob is about to race round the World on a Spanish Boat (Mapfre in the Volvo Ocean Race). And we were rather looking forward to a long-weekend in Valencia..
It will also put a new slant on Brexit negotiations. Not only have the Dons dared to question the UK's ownership of Gibraltar, but even worse they say they will support an independent Scotland joining the EU. Whoa.. pimp slapped or what!
It will be fascinating to see how this plays out – over the last few weeks sterling has steadied and many notes say its set to rally. This morning the FT carries a piece on how Central Banks are “dumping Euros amid concerns over political instability, weak growth and the ECB’s NIRP, and favour Sterling as long-term, stable alternative”. Recovery in Sterling is certainly a theme after last year’s Brexit shock.
Brexit was never going to be an easy process. Its going to be messy - European politics ensure there will not be an easy ride! Which other countries will play similar opportunistic games? Which brings to mind a conversation with an infrastructure investor last week. He reminded me nations basically fall into 2 behaviours: there are those where the mindset is to find ways to pay you back, and there are those where they will find ways to avoid paying.
Guess What. Europe contains both kinds. I suspect that will set the tone for Brexit negotiations.
Some countries will seek to find a mutually beneficial and pragmatic solution that protects European industry’s exports to the UK, and there will be those willing to free-ride Brexit to address national goals. A number of European countries will hide behind the Roguery of Patriotism to hide their failure to address national issues such as youth unemployment. Much easier to blame Les English for destroying their European dream – which basically pays for much of the “other” Europe.
(Of course, the most import political force in the equation is the unelected one in Brussels – The Eurocracy. I’ve mentioned Niskannen’s theory of bureaucracy many times: it states bureaucracies’ economic objective is to increase their authority.)
Still. Needs must. If Spain wants Gibraltar back…
Well… If the Royal Navy can get the engines working on its new destroyers, and the Spanish don't mind waiting a few years till we get some planes for our soon-to-be-delivered aircraft-less aircraft carriers... then Bring It On...
We were last at War with Spain back in 1805 when Nelson smashed the combined Franco/Spanish fleet at Trafalgar. Just a few years later Napoleon (French lest we forget) seized Spain, usurped the throne and set up a brother as king. It was an Anglo/Portuguese/Spanish army under Wellington that chased the French from “The Peninsular” - invading France in 1814 penetrating as far as Bordeaux and Toulouse.
But now it’s a Game of Politics. The strategic imperatives of a bygone age that made Gibraltar a key part of the British Empire no longer exist, but the people clearly wish to remain British rather than Spanish – about 1% of its population recently voted to join Spain! Ironically 96% voted to stay in the EU!
Gibraltar is awkward for the Spanish govt. Never mind the fact it has its own enclaves (Ceuta and Melilla in Morocco). (And extra 5 points to readers who can explain St-Pierre and Miquelon.) How would we Brits feel if Spain owned the Isle of Wight (apparently an option the Spanish Armada in 1588 considered), or China owned Thanet? National pride and a way to rally the masses while distracting them from the massive youth unemployment issues created by the EU and the European superstate is tough for an embattled govt to avoid. It’s also Scumbag politics..
The EU's announced policy was that it would represent the 27 member states. But that's clearly a nonsense - each country has an effective veto, and Spain has made clear from the outset the opportunity it perceives to retake the land it ceded in perpetuity in 1713. What other European states will demand similar special treatment is unclear.
I don't suppose its helped that over the weekend the UK right-wing press has wheeled out the Tory Dinosaurs of the last millennium to chunter up unhelpful comments about Theresa May's willingness to go to war over the issue. Norman Tebbit reprising his calm reasonable views on dealing with foreigners is bound to go over well.. Or Michael, something of the Night, Howard being released from whatever Crypt they keep him in to speak for the PM was bound to keep Daily Mail readers happy….
Meanwhile, the next politician hiding naked hypocritical demands wrapped in a veneer of democracy should be hung. Referendums have proven to be a particularly stupid concept. A majority of people being persuaded to vote for a bad idea isn't a good thing - it might be "democratic", but its still the wrong thing. Yet over the weekend I heard a lash of convoluted arguments arguing how democratic it will be to ignore the last democratic decision by asking the question again. Please. STOP!
Britain has made the call. We are leaving Europe. Lets get on with it. Get over it.
No more referendums. Let the people send representatives to parliament, where they can consider fully the implications.. and if they make the wrong choices, then sack em at the next election. Or maybe not…..
Time for the day job..
Fastnet Race Charity: http://www.sail4cancer.org/fastnet-2017-bill-blain
Bill Blain