Blain's Morning Porridge - Over Exuberance and more to worry about...
Mint – Blain’s Morning Porridge – March 6th 2017
“Let them hate me, so long as they fear me…”
So much for markets to consider this fine morning. The big picture says everything is “tickety-boo”: global growth signals abound, inflation is rising towards levels suggesting the economic heart-beat is normalising, rate hikes look immediate in the US and on the horizon in Europe. Whoopee – we’ve survived the Great Financial Crisis.. or maybe not…
The Devil will be in the detail.. From China to Europe, there are all kinds of reasons to wonder and worry. As stock markets look set for a stall after last week’s rally and stop, it’s a good time to recall Greenspan’s “Irrational Exuberance” comments.
And, there is The Donald… just how worried should we be? Is he about to appoint his horse a senator?
So it’s on with my pessimistic hat this morning.. The potential for disappointment is high.
The number of credit analyst comments telling me out how credit spreads are close to post crisis tights fills me with impending dread. I’ve been told to relax about the Junk bond market – it will be fine if taxes are cut. I’m not so sure… companies that are heavily indebted and reliant on interest rates staying close to zero aren’t going to survive higher rates, and to benefit from lower taxes… they have to be paying taxes in the first place…
Deutsche Bank in the news with a massive recapitalisation.. surprise me… The Euro 8 bln recap should cure their capital problem – but doesn’t change the messy slew of businesses they are trying to reorganise, or the internal fighting as execs try to grab the few life-jackets. They’ve put a stake in DB Asset Management on the block – and it might be a good time for an acquiror to step in with a cheeky bid for the whole thing…
This week we’ve got lots of data points and news. Let’s wait and see what ECB central bankers say about further QE vs an inflation driven hike. What Phil the Spreadsheet Hammond says about UK spending this week is also critical. The number of articles starting to worry the Trump administration and the Republicans won’t be able to agree on delivery of the massive tax-reform/cut stimulus the market has been expecting is reaching “concerned” levels.
Stock markets do look to be oversold – and out of further upside momentum. My stock-picking guru Steve Previs says in this overbought market sentiment is dangerously optimistic. The trading/investment complacency levels are the highest he’s seen in 25 years.
Last week he was pointing out the similarities between the current market and the months that preceded the Great Crash of October 1987.. Black Monday. The charts show the same build-up of unsustainable optimism that built up through the months that preceded the tumble – a series of higher highs before the confidence fell out. He reckons there are few more short-cycles to go before the tumble.
Are markets over-confident?
If someone can explain to me what SnapChat is and how it’s going to monetise whatever it is that monetisable in its business model, then maybe I’ll change my mind. Just saying you know…
Meanwhile.. I’m worried the tail is wagging the dog when it comes to politics across the globe. Politics doesn’t seem to be delivering solutions. Its chasing its own tail about protest votes, disappointment, spoilt millennials, and playing to these – rather than sorting out the fundamentals.
Let me give an example. Here is the UK politics is about points scoring in terms of terms of Brexit, playing poker with the rebellious Scots, accusing the leader of the opposition of tax avoidance…. Etc etc… Yawn.
There is little discussion about sorting out the real issues – such as the amount of our taxes going to pay gold-plated state pensions. (I’m told government pension liabilities will rise to 63 pence in every tax-pound in the near future.)
Or the National Health Service – too special apparently to consider reforming. The hospitals are swamped because care of the elderly in the community has failed; there aren’t enough carers, they are paid a pittance, and doctor surgeries are full. The hospitals are choked with “bed-blockers”… but the political failure isn’t about Government failing to fund the Health Service’s unquenchable need for more and more cash.. that’s simply unsustainable.
The political failure is about not anticipating the consequences of spending cuts elsewhere or to plan how we care for our aging population. I’m not hearing any politician sponsoring plans for a refocus on resources on Age Care faciliites and care-at-home.. Doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure something needs fixed. Instead, politicians are afraid to address the NHS (its an untouchable vote loser) so their the solution is appoint more managers (and their massive contingent pension liabilities) to “make the problem go away”..
Enough ranting.. back to the day job..
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