Blain's Morning Porridge - Consider the Avocado...
Blain’s Morning Porridge – Jan 31st 2017
“I don’t think he knows about second breakfast…”
Trump Shocks Markets… What an unexpected headline.. (US Readers: Sarcasm Alert).
I was in Italy last week, on the magnificent Interbourse Ski Competition – 28 different stock exchanges from around the Globe competing on the slopes. One thing that struck me was the fact the Avocado Breakfast Revolution seems to have passed Italy by. That’s staggering!
Here in the UK, we now consume more avocados than oranges.. There is a whole isle of them in Waitrose (probably not in Lidl…). Spread ‘em on toast, cut them with smoked salmon or lay an egg on top, and they set you up for the whole day…
(My wife thinks they are great.. it’s the closest she gets me to eating vegetables without deep frying them…)
The idea of breakfast without Avocado is now anathema to the trendy classes from Hollywood to Morningside. Without Avocado toast, the breakfast rooms of Hampstead and Chelsea (where Nigella adds Breakfast Radishes to hers, (a step too far in my humble opinion)), will be duller places.
And 80% of the World’s Avocadoes are grown in Mexico. That should not be a surprise.. after all.. who had heard of them before we discovered Tequilla and guacamole in the 1980s? The Trump wall and 20% tax is likely to severely dislocate the avocado market and breakfasts across the globe as initial bouts of avocado dumping are followed by the collapse of the business. Avocado smuggling under, over and thru the well will make them desirable items, too expensive for all but the wealthy.
Which could mean a rethink of the whole Breakfast thing.
That might be great news for Scotland, where a return to the perfect breakfast, ie Porridge, will again reflate and invigorate the entire Scottish economy and entice wee Nicola Krankie to have another go at independence.
Of course, that way will lead to disaster: Trump will recall how the Scots slighted him by daring to approve offshore windfarms near one of his golf courses.. We will be added to the current list of undesirables , followed by Porridge being put on the banned list, Operation Enduring Golf View, and the Marine Corp trying to placate Glasgow. Good luck to them…
Meanwhile, the shortage of Oats getting through to Avocado starved breakfasters will see Cholesterol levels spiking and a rash of heart attacks around the globe... Such are the ways of markets...
Of course the current market malaise might just be because its month end, its been an exiting 31 days of the new year, and everyone’s feeling a bit overexcited about the whole Trump thing. Lets see what happens when the dust settles.. (That is a worrying thought..)
It does feel like we are in for a period of reassessment on market prospects. A number of colleagues tell me they’re on the side of slower growth, and a return to low rates as the Trump rally backfires and triggers a new recession of uncertainty.
On the back of that are the increasing fears about Europe, speaking to continental financiers last week, its clear there remains a massive expectations divide between Anglo-Saxons and Europeans. Almost every European I speak to doubts the Euro will unravel. They believe Brexit is a source of instability, but fundamentally the UK’s problem. Europe will thrive without us. I asked about France and am confidently assured there is absolutely no risk Madame Frexit, Le Pen, can get elected… No matter how bad the opposition will prove to be.
The consensus across Europe – admittedly my sample last week was questionable since they
were largely Ski-nuts – is Europe will weather this year’s political challenges, we are not going to get the Brexit/Trump “Die Liberal Die” protest vote surprise, and the main concern is ensuring on-going banking weakness doesn’t trigger a new financial crisis.
I don’t entirely share their confidence, but I’m equally aware how Anglo-Saxon attitudes and expectations on Europe are nearly always more negative that the actuality!
Full Porridge Service tomorrow.. I’m just trying to get to the bottom of the Co-op banking story.. Have a suspicion that might become opportunity…